May Sees Modest Increase In Home Sales

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) May's housing report showed:


  • residential home sales in the region totalled 2,638, a 6.9% decrease from the 2,833 sales recorded in May 2018
  • It was 44.2% higher than the 1,829 homes sold in April 2019.
Total home sales for the month were 22.9% below the 10-year May sales average, and was the lowest total for the month since 2000.

Ashley Smith, REBGV president cited "High home prices and mortgage qualification issues caused by the federal government’s B20 stress test remain significant factors behind the reduced demand that the market is experiencing today"


Although new listings were added at slightly higher level than the month before, slower sales continued to add to the total listings. 

Sales-to-active Listings Ratio

  • For all property types: the ratio for May 2019 was 18%.
  • For detached homes the ratio was 14.2%
  • For townhomes it was 20% and 21.2% for condos/apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

HPI Benchmark Price

The recent months rate of price decline appeared to have slowed, partly due to many home sellers deciding to withhold their homes homes for sale. The more orderly decline in home prices in the past few months provided some confidence and hope to home sellers that the market may hold the home prices at currrent levels.



Now that the seasonally peak home buying and selling period had passed, the slower sales pace for July to September could add many more homes to the current supply, causing another round of price decline from late autumn to the end of January, 2020.


We will continue to monitor the market and report back on the housing market activities in the second half of 2019.


Related Links:


Housing Market Outlook 2019 And Beyond

Metro Vancouver Housing Report - April 2019

Greater Vancouver Housing Market Update - February, 2019
REBGV & FVREB Housing Market Outlook: 2019 - 2021

Home Sales Were 25% Below 10-year Sales Average

Stress Tests Disqualifying 18% of Canadian Home Buyers
Global Assets: Greater Vancouver Real Estate


Read full post

Home Sales Outlook

The REBGV rolling 12-month home sales as shown on the chart below for Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley showed worsening housing markets since 2016. Home sales since the middle of 2018 had crashed below the10-year average sale, and there are few signs of buyers getting back into the market. The fundamental shift in housing demand since 2016 has a major impact on the housing markets in the lower mainland of Vancouver and Fraser Valley.


Until housing market sentiment becomes more conducive and the many constraints on buyers become more favourable, home sales are expected to remain low for some time. Home sales for the second half of 2019 will provide a clearer picture as when a rebound in home buying activities will resume. If the decline in home prices is gradual, the recovery in sales may be delayed and dragged on for 2 or more years. 


Average Days-on-market

Based on the chart below, the current average days-on-market is around 35 days. The current housing market cycle and market dynamics for the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley will likely take up to early 2020 before the days-on-market reaches the 10-year average of 48 days.


However, the days-on-market may over shoot and pushed up to 60 days before pricing pressure causes more sellers to sell their homes at lower prices to push the days-on-market back to its average figure.



HPI Home Price Outlook

The Canadian Federal and Provincial Governments appear to have set their sight on guiding the housing market and make home prices to a more affordable level. At current rate of price decline, home prices will have to decline more over a longer period before reaching the long term price levels sometime around the middle of 2021.


If the rolling 12 months HPI price projections for Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley were to follow the rates of decline as shown on the chart below, the HPI price decline would represent 22% and 25% respectively from their peak HPI prices of 2018.


It may take another 2 years of low housing activities and lower home prices before buying interest returns to boost home sale to levels above the 10 years sale averages of 2,500 units and 1,350 units respectively for the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley markets. 


Related Links:


Metro Vancouver Housing Report - April 2019

Greater Vancouver Housing Market Update - February, 2019
REBGV & FVREB Housing Market Outlook: 2019 - 2021

Home Sales Were 25% Below 10-year Sales Average

Stress Tests Disqualifying 18% of Canadian Home Buyers
Global Assets: Greater Vancouver Real Estate
November Home Sales Down 42.5%


Return to homepage.


Disclaimer: The owner of this website assumes no liability whatsoever, for errors and/or omissions and any consequences arising either directly or indirectly from the use of information provided by this website. Any data provided are strictly for guidance and planning purposes only and may not be applicable due to ever changing market dynamics.

Read full post
The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the REBGV, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the REBGV, the FVREB or the CADREB.