An analyst sees it happening…
Eitel Economics using a technical-analysis technique commonly used for stock-market analysis tracks data points and to predict future market trends.
According to the forecast, the peak price of $1.83 million for a Greater Vancouver detached home won’t be reached again for several years. This market peak price was touched three times — January 2016, February/March 2016, and May 2017.
“That signals a triple top, meaning that there is no momentum to carry that higher for the near-term future.”
The forecaster, Mr. Dan Eitel suggests the market will bottom out in 2020 or 2021, with the average price of a detached home sinking to about $1.4 million. Read more…
A graphical presentation for Dan’s insight in HPI price is as shown in the chart below.
The long cooling period according to Eitel is attributes to the expanded stress testing introduced by Canadian banks for uninsured mortgage applicants. The author also figures the stress test will result in home owners who bought their homes at the market’s height, not able to re-qualify to renew their mortgages when they are due for renewal.
Mr. Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist, CIBC World Markets had a more optimistic outlook for the Canadian housing market. His comments on the housing market is presented in his video “Canada’s Housing Market – Tough Times Ahead?”