Greater Vancouver Home Price Trend

Declining Home Sales

The current depressed home sales due to multitude of factors will result in the rapid increase in supply of homes and  the build up of pricing pressure on home prices. The current market is the reverse of 2015 to 2017 when the supply of homes was low causing double digit gains in prices from 2015 to 2017.

Greater Vancouver home sales

The continued drop in home sales in Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley during the first 4 months of 2019 is expected to exert pressure on home prices. While home sales have already dropped from its peak in 2016, sales may remain depressed due to:

  • Severely unaffordable home prices that few local residents can afford to buy.
  • Stress test limiting the number of buyers able to get the financing they need for their home purchases.
  • Difficulties in mainland Chinese buyers getting their funds out of China for home purchases.
  • Buyers waiting on the sideline as most are expecting home prices to go lower. 

Greater Vancouver housing listings inventory

Money laundering drove up B.C. real estate prices by 5%: reports

An estimated $5.3 billion of laundered money into B.C. real estate in 2018 hiked housing prices 5 per cent, two special reports released Thursday by the provincial government show. Right now we have an estimate of the amount of money that went in over a single year.

There’s been a 70 per cent increase in property value over a three-year period in the Greater Vancouver region. The impact of money laundering on specific regions, such as Greater Vancouver, could be much higher.

HPI Price Projection

The long term home price growth for Greater Vancouver is as illustrated by the upward slopping red-colour price channel. The green price line showed the rolling 12-month HPI price, and the price just rolled over in 2018. Detached home prices already reported to have dropped more than 11% year-over-year, townhouses 7.5% and condos 6.9%. 

If the price decline follows a steeper decline as shown in (1), the HPI home price will reach the long term price channel sometime around 2021 and 2022 and if the HPI price decline is more gradual, it will reach the support channel in late 2022 and 2023.

The current slow housing market is likely to be drawn out for a few years as the housing demand problem in Greater Vancouver area cannot be resolved in a few short years. A more normal and orderly market will result in a more significant decline in home prices that are currently severely unaffordable. A recent report cited "Average Vancouver home prices could lose $100,000 from 2018 peak".

Related Links:

Metro Vancouver Housing Market Report - April 2019
Greater Vancouver Housing Market Outlook

Greater Vancouver Housing Market Update - February, 2019

REBGV & FVREB Housing Market Outlook: 2019 - 2021

Home Sales Were 25% Below 10-year Sales Average

Stress Tests Disqualifying 18% of Canadian Home Buyers
Global Assets: Greater Vancouver Real Estate

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Reciprocity Logo The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB.